Episode 424: Bonds vs. Trout and Other Listener Emails
Date April 9, 2014 Summary Ben and Sam answer listener emails about Barry Bonds vs. Mike Trout, Billy Hamilton, teams taking the long view, and more. Topics * Picking Mike Trout or Barry Bonds * What it would take to bench Billy Hamilton * Balancing short vs. long term planning * Players who play at only one position * Games played without plate appearances * Defensive replacements Intro Kanye West (Ft. Lil Wayne), "Barry Bonds" Banter Ben and Sam advertise Saberseminar. Email Questions * Jake: "If you had the choice, would you rather take current Trout or 2001 Bonds? You'd get Bonds' 2001 season and the certainty that comes with knowing the remainder of his career or you get current Trout. You'd dont know if he'll stay with you past his current contract or what kind of player he might be in five years, but he could be more valuable in the long run. Side question, if you take Trout, at what point would you take Bonds? 1999? 98? 97? Another side question, if you take Bonds, at what point would you take Trout? 2002? 2003?" * Matt: "Billy Hamilton has had a really brutal start to the season. So, how many plate appearances with a .300 OBP do you guys think it would take for Hamilton to lose his spot in the everyday lineup? How many with a .280, .260 OBP?" * Matt: "Are teams getting too invested in the long term? Always the long term, the smart investments, the value of draft picks, the Cardinals model, instead of just going for it sometimes? The success cycle theory has been essentially dismissed but is that because it was never correct or because it's being phased out by a lot of the very methodical executives that think more like economists than competitors." * Kevin (Toronto, ON): "As a lifelong Tigers fan with the news that Jose Iglesias is gone for the season I started to think about how the late inning defensive replacement is becoming less common. Given that most teams now carry a 12 or 13 man pitching staff this means fewer bench players and fewer opportunities to carry that defensive wizard. Who leads MLB appearances in the field without an official PA in 2013 and how many did he have? Has this number declined over time?" * Vinit: "Does it make sense to have defensive replacements in the late innings?" Play Index * fewer players who only play one position. since 1998. * Sam uses the Play Index to find out if the number of players who only play one position has decreased in recent years. * The search yielded data that showed 2013 was overall below average at each position for the number of players (20 game minimum) that played only one position. Notes * From 2001 onward, Barry Bonds was worth 51.4 WAR. * Sam would narrowly pick Mike Trout over 2001 Barry Bonds. * From 2001-2004 Barry Bonds had 138 plate appearances against pitchers who in that same season got votes for the Cy Young award. In those plate appearances he hit .327/.522/.786. Sam would revisit this fact in Episode 762. * In 2013 Sam Fuld had 40 games in which he appeared without getting a plate appearance. Links * Effectively Wild Episode 424: Bonds vs. Trout and Other Listener Emails Category:Episodes Category:Email Episodes